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同城头条  >  本地  >  通胀压力上升,欧洲央行继续进攻
通胀压力上升,欧洲央行继续进攻
2022年07月18日 19:06   浏览:35069   来源:菲社网

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德国法兰克福-欧洲中央银行将于周四上调利率,这是十多年来的首次,但在创纪录的通货膨胀率下,该银行已经面临采取更多措施的压力。

几个月来,欧洲央行一直在为廉价资金时代的终结做准备,廉价资金在近年来的一系列危机中支撑了欧洲经济。

为了试图抵消价格的急剧上涨,央行表示,它打算将利率上调25个基点,这是自2011年以来的首次加息。

欧洲央行已经在七月初停止了债券购买刺激计划,因为它为上涨奠定了基础。

价格上涨是对价格空前飙升的回应,价格上涨是由供应链瓶颈和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后能源成本上升推动的。

欧元区6月份的通胀率为8.6%,是该货币俱乐部有史以来的最高纪录,远高于欧洲央行2%的目标。

这家总部位于法兰克福的机构继续追赶同行,比如美国美联储,它开始加息的时间更早,力度也更大。

太慢了

欧洲央行存款利率在过去八年中一直为负,关键利率目前为负0.5%。

惩罚性利率实际上是要求银行将资金存放在欧洲央行过夜,旨在鼓励更多贷款、更多经济活动和更高的通胀率。

p>Stubbornly low for years, prices are now soaring as a result of scrambled supply chains from the coronavirus pandemic and the burst in the price of food and energy caused by the war in Ukraine.

The inflation surge caught central banks, not least the ECB, off guard.

Now, the central bank is aiming to lift interest rates out of negative territory by the end of September as part of a "gradual but sustained" series of hikes, according to President Christine Lagarde.

In hindsight, the "cautious normalization process the ECB started at the end of last year has simply been too slow and too late," said Carsten Brzeski, head of macro at the ING bank.

With each new data release causing new consternation, the ECB's cautious quarter-point step could lead to a feeling of "disappointment", Brzeski said.

Some ECB policymakers may push for faster action but "it will be a balancing act between the ECB's credibility as being predictable and its credibility as a determined inflation fighter," he said.

'IMPOSSIBLE EQUATION'

The ECB was faced with an "impossible equation to solve", said Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management.

Central bankers were determined to squash inflation while "the euro area economy is on the brink of recession", circumstances under which they would normally hesitate to raise interest rates.

The outlook for the economy was clouded by the war in Ukraine with eurozone members bracing for a winter in which energy could be scarce and planning to ration supplies if Russia halts gas deliveries to the continent.

Add a weak euro against the dollar, which touched parity recently for the first time in nearly 20 years, and a political crisis in Italy and the monetary calculations became even harder, Ducrozet said.

The withdrawal of a key party from former ECB chief and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi's governing coalition has unnerved investors, sending borrowing costs up again.

The quickly rising strain in bond markets had already prompted the ECB to respond in mid-June by speeding up the design of an instrument to fight "fragmentation" in the eurozone.

The new tool was "critical" to avoid "excessive divergence" in the borrowing costs faced by different countries and make sure monetary policy moves were felt evenly across the eurozone, ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos said in early July.

But the idea has been met with skepticism by some governing council members.

Any crisis tool should only be used in "exceptional circumstances" and under strict conditions, warned Joachim Nagel, head of the traditionally conservative German Bundesbank.


 

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